Expected chance of winning vs usual results for this weekend’s PSL fixtures

Kaizer Chiefs have a chance to stretch their lead at the top of the PSL log when they host Black Leopards over the weekend. The gap between Amakhosi and defending champions, Mamelodi Sundowns, widened to nine points midweek after Pitso Mosimane’s men lost to Orlando Pirates.

Both sides have played 17 fixtures and Masandawana have a tricky match on their hands over the weekend. They  take a hop and skip to SuperSport United for a Tshwane derby, but just one point separates the two sides who are sitting second and third respectively.

But the action will begin on Friday evening with two 20:00 kick offs – Maritzburg United vs AmaZulu FC and Stellenbosch FC vs Baroka FC.

Black Leopards entertain Chiefs in the early (15:30) kick off on Saturday while Orlando Pirates host Highlands Park at 18:00. Cape Town City FC will try to get out of their slump when they host Wits in Saturday’s final kick off at 20:15.

Then, on Sunday, SuperSport United take on Mamelodi Sundowns, Bloemfontein Celtic take on Chippa United and Polokwane square off against Golden Arrows. All of those matches kick off at 15:30.

 Even to the casual observer, many of the weekend’s match ups might appear to be a foregone conclusion, there are some interesting trends when crunching the numbers.

While fixtures go as you expect them to more often than not, breaking down the individual match ups does make for interesting reading.

Just because a team has the higher expected chance of winning doesn’t mean they are always the favourite.

This becomes quite apparent when the expected chance of winning is contrasted with what percentage of fixtures with those odds a team usually wins.

Here’s how those compare for this weekend’s fixtures.

Maritzburg United vs AmaZulu

Maritzburg United Vs Amazulu

Stellenbosch vs Baroka FC

Stellenbosch Fc Vs Baroka

Black Leopards vs Kaizer Chiefs

At the time of writing, there were no odds available for Black Leopards. Kaizer Chiefs, however, have an expected chance of winning of 78%, but win just 38% of their matches with these same odds.

Orlando Pirates vs Highlands Park

Orlando Pirates Vs Highlands Park

Cape Town City FC vs Wits

Cape Town City Fc Vs Wits

SuperSport United vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Supersport Vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Bloemfontein Celtic vs Chippa United

Bloemfontein Celtic Vs Chippa United

Polokwane City vs Golden Arrows

Polokwane City Vs Golden Arrows
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