Euro 2020 final predictions and probable starting XI: Italy vs England

euro 2020 final prediction

The new kings of European football will be crowned on Sunday night, as Italy go up against England in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley Stadium.

A mouthwatering tie pits two nations that have forgotten how to lose against each other.

But something has to give in London in front of over 60 000 fans, where the Three Lions will have home advantage on the site of their most recent major tournament final appearance at the 1966 World Cup.

The Azzurri, meanwhile, are out to go one better than their runners-up finishes in 2012 and 2000, having won their sole continental crown on home turf in 1968.

Both teams were made to sweat for their place in the showpiece this time around.

Spain predictably bossed the possession and had more than their share of chances to kill their semi-final against the Italians on Tuesday.

The tide could also have turned when Alvaro Morata popped up in the 80th minute to force extra time, cancelling out Federico Chiesa’s opener on the hour mark.

But, with captain fantastic Giorgio Chiellini a domineering presence on the field to the last, mercurial Morata’s miss in the penalty shootout allowed Jorginho to cap a sublime match with the winning spot kick.

It wasn’t smooth sailing for the English the following night, either.

Tournament darlings Denmark had defied all odds to collectively recover from Christian Eriksen’s collapse on the pitch in the opening weekend, squeaking through the group stage before riding a wave of emotion and momentum into the last four.

It continued as Mikkel Damsgaard’s wicked free kick after half-an-hour inflicted a first goal conceded by their finely-tuned opponents.

But England have a force of their own these days and hit back within ten minutes, as youngster Bukayo Saka’s cross was turned into his own net by hapless Danish captain Simon Kjaer.

That’s how it stayed until almost half time in extra time, as skipper Harry Kane followed up to finish his penalty that had initially been saved by Kasper Schmeichel, following a dubious plummet to the turf in the box by the otherwise excellent Raheem Sterling.

Neither team would want to change too much in terms of the personnel that have served them so well up to this point, despite the exertions of extra time for both.

Italy coach Roberto Mancini will need to wait it out to see if Chiesa is fit to start, with Domenico Berardi an option if the youngster doesn’t recover in time.

Chiellini’s injury earlier in the tournament is a distant memory, with the charismatic skipper forming his terrifying defensive partnership with Leonardo Bonucci for what could be one last time.

One thing that stuck out for England as their semi-final headed towards the two-hour mark was their apparently superhuman levels of fitness.

Sterling in particular was effervescent, with the only real question at the sharp end being whether any of Jack Grealish, Phil Foden or Jadon Sancho could squeeze in at the expense of Mason Mount or Bukayo Saka.

It’s a wonderful problem to have for thoughtful coach Gareth Southgate, who doesn’t appear to have any fresh injury worries among his squad.

Euro 2020 final prediction: Italy vs England

Prediction methodology explained: The expected win percentage is based off publicly available odds. For example, if a team’s odds are 2.30, the expected chance of winning is 43%. If the odds are 1.62 the expected chance of winning is 62% and so on. These are accurate at the time of writing, but are subject to change. Where there is no value listed, the odds were not available at the time of writing.

italy vs england euro 2020

Probable Italy Starting XI: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini, Emerson, Marco Verratti, Jorginho, Nicolo Barella, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile, Lorenzo Insigne.

Probable England Starting XI: Jordan Pickford, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Kalvin Phillips, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Mason Mount, Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane.

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